Three arguments against buying securities today
Now is not the right time to buy Treasury bonds
In 2021, Poles spent 3-4 billion zlotys a month to buy retail treasury bonds. Although we do not yet know the data for December, the number of applications for the purchase of treasury securities placed at that time suggests that the result should be similar at the end of 2021. As a result, the government can rejoice in the largest bond sale in history
Do we invest for a short time or in fear of inflation
Three-month and four-year newspapers became the most popular last year. The first allowed to earn only 0.5 Prof. per annum. So why their popularity? The aforementioned half percent was still more than the average deposit offered by the banks, and besides, the Finance Minister did not apply any stars or additional requirements, so it was easy (even via the Internet) to invest any amount in this way. This was enough for half of the annual sales of all retail bonds in 2021 to fall on three-month securities.
The reason for the popularity of four-year bonds was completely different. These are the shortest securities that offer the so-called inflation indexation. In practice, this means that we know the interest rate on our savings only in the first year (currently in the case of "four-year" 1.3 percent), and in subsequent years the interest rate will be set by adding the profit margin (currently in the case of "four-year" it is 0.75 percentage points) to the latest inflation indicator.
We appreciate the illusion of protection from inflation
December data on bond purchase orders suggest that four-year securities were still very popular at the end of the year, but three-month securities lost their charm in the eyes of compatriots in favor of ten-year securities. In general, this is not surprising – a rash of the best bank deposits, which most easily allow you to earn 2-3 percent. per annum, most effectively scares off three-month papers that give the promise of earnings at the level of 0.5 prof. per annum. By the way, the improvement of the deposit offer in banks was caused by the fact that only in November compatriots opened deposits worth over 51 billion rubles. For comparison, in September (before the interest rate increase) we invested 21 billion deposits.
Recent data show that ten-year retail securities are gaining popularity. The previously mentioned inflation indexing mechanism is probably behind this step. In the case of ten-year-olds, this works in such a way that in the first year of savings we can count on an interest rate of 1.7 percent, and then 1 percentage point above inflation. If someone thinks that buying these securities today is a good idea, then there are at least three arguments to suggest that they may be wrong.
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